Hawkeye HQ predictions: A disappointed full house

Hawkeye Headquarters
92241569_1506102193444

IOWA CITY, IA – SEPTEMBER 10: Fans cheer as the Iowa Hawkeyes face the Iowa State Cyclones on September 10, 2016 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)

 

There has been some confusion and even outrage (mostly the hyperbolic Twitter kind) over the fact that there are “still good seats available” for Iowa’s Saturday game against Penn State.

“But it’s a night game…”

“…nationally televised…”

“…against the No. 4 team in the country…”

“…and the Hawkeyes are undefeated…”

“!!!”

First off: Don’t worry, Kinnick Stadium will probably be full. Or at least look it. (Not going to lie, I wouldn’t refuse a little extra room on the bleachers.)

Iowa is simply testing the limits of its single-game ticket fanbase, perhaps even converting a few to season tickets or at least a 3-game pack next season. 

Look at it from that fan’s standpoint, because those are the tickets that remain unsold. Any single-game ticket buyer mapping out their future using what was available before the season had three home game times set in stone: Wyoming at 11, North Texas at 2:30 and Illinois at 11. 

So for those fans looking for certainty in their planning, those were your options to pre-buy. The rest of the game times don’t have to be decided until 11 days before due to the new TV deals.

Other fans come into town once a year for the best opponent, regardless of game time. If Hawkeye fans did that at the beginning of the year, you’d have likely picked the other $95 game: Ohio State. 

And that brings us to the other big factor: Price.

There’s some sticker shock at $95, especially considering you could go to both of the first two home games for $90 combined.

But a look back at the face value of some my old night game tickets shows that the price for Saturday’s game isn’t really out of line.


So looking at that, the $45 price for the opener looks that much better. In fact, the Wyoming seat in 2017 is the lowest in my collection for the past decade. And the next home game is Illinois, with $60 adult seats and kids seats for $25. A family choosing between a night game at $95 each or waiting for Homecoming has a pretty easy decision.

But Iowa is no more obligated to keep prices low than fans are to show up at prices they don’t like. Supply and demand. If a couple thousand seats stay empty Saturday, the university is still making more money than they did on the earlier games. And if they were sold out at $95, perhaps next year they’d try $105. 

You can’t blame the Hawkeyes for trying to get what tickets are worth — AIRBHG knows I’ve spent a few extra bucks on StubHub in my day — but you can’t blame fans if they stay home, either.

And instead of worrying about the crowd, the Hawkeyes need to worry about this:

So about those picks…

Featured predictions
Hawkeye Headquarters
Adam Rossow:
Penn State 31, Iowa 16
Dan Vasko: Penn State 35, Iowa 24

Hawkmania
Steve Batterson:
 Penn State 28, Iowa 22
Against a Penn State team which has recorded 30 plays of 20 or more yards during its 3-0 start, Iowa will need to play assignment-sound defensive football and eliminate the turnover and penalty issues which have been an early-season issue. The experience of Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki probably gives the Nittany Lions a bit of an edge in this match-up.

National predictions
Sports Illustrated
Andy Staples: Penn State 
Bruce Feldman: Penn State 
Chris Johnson: Penn State 
Joan Niesen: Penn State
Eric Single: Penn State 
Molly Geary: Penn State
Scooby Axson: Penn State

SBNation
Bill Connelly: Penn State 33, Iowa 19 

Athlon Sports
Mitch Light: Penn State 34, Iowa 24 

ESPN
Dan Murphy: Penn State 30, Iowa 24 
Mitch Sherman: Penn State 28, Iowa 17 
Tom VanHaaren: Penn State 45, Iowa 17 


Hawkeye State predictions
Land of 10
Scott Dochterman: Penn State 38, Iowa 31 
Bobby La Gesse: Penn State 34, Iowa 31 

The Gazette
Marc Morehouse: Penn State 34, Iowa 24

Hawk Central
Chad Leistikow: Penn State 31, Iowa 13 

Go Iowa Awesome
Mark Hasty: Penn State 34, Iowa 23  

AllHawkeyes
Pat Harty: Iowa 23, Penn State 21 

Hawkeye Nation
Rob Howe: Penn State 31, Iowa 24 
Jon Miller: Penn State 
Sean Neugent: Iowa 23, Penn State 20
David Schwartz: Penn State
Mitch Smith: Penn State 

Hawkeye Report
Mike Zierath: Penn State 36, Iowa 14  
Tom Kakert: Penn State 31, Iowa 17 
Blair Sanderson: Penn State 31, Iowa 28 
RDietz: Penn State 27, Iowa 17
Torbee: Penn State 31, Iowa 24 
Lyle Hammes: Penn State 31, Iowa 21 
John Kerth: Penn State 34, Iowa 24 
Matt Randazzo: Penn State 28, Iowa 17 

BlackHeartGoldPants
Max Brekke: Penn State 47, Iowa 31 
BoilerHawk: Penn State 35, Iowa 31 
JP Scott: Iowa 
JPinIC: Penn State 34, Iowa 27 
Hello Jerry: Penn State 31, Iowa 20 
Matt Cabel: Penn State 56, Iowa 10 
Benjamin Ross: Iowa  
Rob Donaldson: Penn State 35, Iowa 24
Jordan Hansen: Penn State 

Simulation
Cody Hills: Penn State 33, Iowa 28

Irrelevant prediction
@Hawkologist
And finally, the totally irrelevant prediction based on playing EA Sports’ NCAA Football 2004 on a PS2, as is the tradition since 2015:

Ryan Jaster: Hawkeyes 55, Penn State 46. Touchdown strikes of 76 and 81 in the first quarter set the tone. Then it really got wild. Onside kicks, short fields and zero pass defense made the fourth quarter a shootout that never really was in doubt, despite the fact that Iowa was outscored 36-34 in the final frame. (That’s a higher score than almost all of the picks above.) The teams traded TD passes of 60, 60, 41, 49 and 58 yards at one point. Nate Stanley finished with 573 yards passing, eclipsing the record of 558 of “1988 QB” (Chuck Hartlieb). Say what you will, but if Stanley sets Iowa’s passing record, I like the Hawkeyes chances. The irrelevant prediction might have just found the formula to victory.

Prognosis: Nobody picked North Texas last week, and the Mean Green Eagles were winning at halftime. So there’s always a chance. But few have faith in the Hawkeyes. And some of those that do are just keeping a promise to a friend, picking them only because no one else is, or playing an outdated game system using players from 14 years ago. (Click those links above for who’s who — five in all!) There is something special about an Iowa night game, but it doesn’t always result in a Hawkeye win. Hopefully those of us in attendance at least get their money’s worth. Prediction? Pain.

For more Hawkeye football coverage, follow @AdamJRossow and @HawkeyeHQ on Twitter — and now Facebook — and Hawkeye Headquarters on OurQuadCities.com all season.

Copyright 2021 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.