There’s been a map passed around this week that shows the potential for a Cyclone fan base that eclipses that of the Hawkeyes within the state of Iowa.
It shows the biggest alumni base in each county and uses it to suggest the base has grown considerably since the 1990s.
There’s another map that tells a different story.
Revisiting this map of college football fans from 2014 for #CyHawk week. https://t.co/flhuAKL9KD Anyone think Iowa has changed much in four years? #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/jBQHONCSmq— HawkeyeHQ.com’s Ryan Jaster (@Hawkologist) September 7, 2018
This one is from 2014, but you’d have a hard time convincing me the percentages have changed that much in four years, especially in eastern Iowa, and even — gasp — western Illinois.
And Rock Island County in Illinois is #Hawkeyes territory, which is surprising to some. 34% for Iowa vs. 16.9% Illinois and 4.9% Notre Dame. Cyclones don’t cross rivers, apparently. https://t.co/flhuAKL9KD pic.twitter.com/43drvzYvrC— HawkeyeHQ.com’s Ryan Jaster (@Hawkologist) September 7, 2018
Yes, it’s true that sometimes a river does not divide us — or keep a Rock Island kid from having a rooting interest in a D-1 team less than an hour’s drive away.
Will this be a signature win for the Cyclones in the same way some suggest the drought-ending, Troy Davis-led 1998 victory was, leading a new generation to embrace pairing red with their athletic gold instead of black?
Or will Iowa prevail as it has the vast majority of the time in this series?
For that, we turn to the experts.
The Hawkeyes’ all-time leader in receptions returns for a second season of predictions.
Kevonte Martin-Manley: Iowa 35, Iowa State 10
Steve Batterson: Iowa 20, Iowa State 17
The history of this instate series is filled with the game-deciding work of kickers. Miguel Recinos has provided Iowa with consistency in his work since stepping into the lineup a year ago and he is capable of being a difference maker in this year’s Cy-Hawk match-up. If Iowa State had played last week, I may have flipped this score. The combination of what Iowa’s defensive front brings to the table and the questions that ISU has on its offensive front, along with the leg of a senior kicker, put me in a position to give the Hawkeyes a slight edge this week at Kinnick.
Adam Rossow: Iowa State 19, Iowa 16
Dan Vasko: Iowa 28, Iowa State 24
Both @danvasko and I think it’s going to be another #CyHawk classic, but we’re split on which team wins in this week’s @HawkeyeHQ predictions.#CyclONEnation #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/yyyQjwBjpy— Adam Rossow (@AdamJRossow) September 7, 2018
Bill Connelly: Iowa 26, Iowa State 15
Steven Lassan: Iowa
Mitch Light: Iowa
Braden Gall: Iowa
Hawkeye State predictions
Scott Dochterman: Iowa State 34, Iowa 31
Marc Morehouse: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24
Chad Leistikow: Iowa 24, Iowa State 21
Go Iowa Awesome
Mark Hasty: Iowa 27, Iowa State 24
Pat Harty: Iowa State 27, Iowa 24
Black Heart Gold Pants
Max Brekke: Iowa 27, Iowa State 23
Jordan Hansen: Iowa 20, Iowa State 14
JPinIC: Iowa 37, Iowa State 31
Jordan Garretson: Iowa 24, Iowa State 20
Trez: Iowa 34, Iowa State 20
Matt Cabel: Iowa 31, Iowa State 27
BoilerHawk: Iowa 23, Iowa State 21
Benjamin Ross: Iowa 45, Iowa State 2
Matt Reisener: Iowa State 27, Iowa 24
Cody Hills: Iowa 30, Iowa State 20
And finally, the totally irrelevant prediction based on playing EA Sports’ NCAA Football 2004 on a PS2, as is the tradition since 2015.
Ryan Jaster: Hawkeyes 17, Iowa State 10. Iowa’s play-action methodically sets up the run throughout the first half while the defense sacks the Cyclone quarterback mercilessly, building a 10-0 lead at the break. Iowa State finds its passing game in the second half, tying the game at 10 with just under a minute to play. The Hawkeyes uncharacteristically take to the air, completing 42- and 37-yard passes to score a touchdown in two plays and leave 31 seconds on the clock. The game ends with consecutive sacks by the Iowa defense.
This week’s totally irrelevant prediction: #Hawkeyes 17, Iowa State 10. Play-action & sacks secure a 10-0 Iowa lead at the break, but Iowa State finds its passing game & pulls even late. The Hawkeyes uncharacteristically take to the air & a 37-yard TD with :31 left seals it. pic.twitter.com/et6317nvm3— HawkeyeHQ.com’s Ryan Jaster (@Hawkologist) September 7, 2018
Prognosis: This has been a sexy pick for an upset at Kinnick. Some changed their minds after Week 1’s performance — or lack of one. But even the national picks lean Iowa. So call it home field advantage or hometown bias… or just call it the true state of Iowa college football. Not much pain is predicted.